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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 5
2025-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 074 WTPZ45 KNHC 172032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick has continued to become better organized in visible satellite imagery, with an extended cloud band curling one revolution around the center. However, there is also some evidence of a dry slot filtering into the circulation from the southeast, and possibly as a result, infrared cloud top temperatures in the band are not as cold as they could be. Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, but the initial intensity is held conservatively at 45 kt since objective numbers are closest to the TAFB estimate. The center appears to have turned northwestward (310 degrees) and is moving around 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a mid-/upper-level trough over northern Mexico, should keep Erick on a generally northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and it a little east of the previous prediction. Because of the oblique angle of Erick's track relative to the coast, it is impossible to know exactly where the strongest winds might occur, but it is becoming increasingly likely that they will occur in the area of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states. Despite the current convective pattern, the environment of low wind shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should still support rapid strengthening. Erick also has the structure to enable rapid intensification, and it may only take mixing out some of the dry air for that process to begin. Rapid intensification (RI) indices fell a little on this forecast cycle, mainly due to a negative contribution from the influx of drier boundary layer air. However, assuming this dry air can mix out, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be near the high end of the guidance (closest to HCCA and HMON), and still shows Erick near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.9, -94.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 5
2025-06-17 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.4W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics