je.st
news
Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 6
2025-06-18 04:40:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Erick is becoming increasingly well-organized. Deep convection has expanded and cooled, with enhanced infrared imagery indicating cloud tops as cold as -85 C near the center. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed an improved inner-core structure, including a developing curved band. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 and T4.0, respectively, and objective ADT values are approaching T3.5. In addition, just-received synthetic aperture radar data indicate winds near 50 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory to represent a blend of these estimates. Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This slowing in forward speed is consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north, caused by a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the central United States. This general motion is expected to continue through landfall, with only a gradual increase in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement and continues to show the center of Erick approaching the coast of southern Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours. Although confidence in the overall track is relatively high, small deviations could lead to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur. The official forecast lies near the consensus of the HCCA and TVCE aids and is very close to the previous NHC track. The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several dynamic regional models bring Erick to major hurricane strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues overnight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.1N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2025-06-18 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 794 FOPZ15 KNHC 180239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 11(32) X(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 45(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 34 1 11(12) 69(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 38(39) 20(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) P ANGEL 34 3 66(69) 11(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) P ANGEL 50 X 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ANGEL 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 1 31(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HUATULCO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 95W 34 11 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 95W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-18 04:39:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 9:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 13.1, -94.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics