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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-18 11:22:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 08:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 09:22:28 GMT [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 7
2025-06-18 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Ericks structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours, consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the central United States. This general motion is expected to continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track. The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2025-06-18 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 215 FOPZ15 KNHC 180833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 18(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 X 13(13) 78(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P ANGEL 34 1 63(64) 5(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) P ANGEL 50 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ANGEL 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 95W 34 4 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics