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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 3
2025-06-17 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERICK... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 93.6W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 93.6 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and coastal sections of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across interior portions of Southeast Mexico, El Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Gibbs/Jelsema [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 3
2025-06-17 10:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 392 WTPZ25 KNHC 170845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 93.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2025-06-17 07:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 05:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 03:22:37 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics