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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 4
2025-06-17 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 495 WTPZ35 KNHC 171445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado. A Hurricane Watch has been issued west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Mora [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 4
2025-06-17 16:44:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 937 WTPZ25 KNHC 171443 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-17 13:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 11:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 09:22:36 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics