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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 7
2025-06-18 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 938 WTPZ35 KNHC 180832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 95.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and the system may reach major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 7
2025-06-18 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 281 WTPZ25 KNHC 180832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 95.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-18 07:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 05:53:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 03:22:32 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics