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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2025-06-19 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 429 FOPZ15 KNHC 192032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 14
2025-06-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 464 WTPZ45 KNHC 192032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick continues to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The inner core has now nearly completely collapsed, and the overall convective pattern has become quite ragged. Based on the degraded appearance and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, making Erick a tropical storm. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as Erick continues northwestward. The storm is expected to dissipate over the mountains in southwestern Mexico tonight. Even though Erick is no longer a hurricane, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.4, -99.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics