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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2025-06-17 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) X(31) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 39(46) 37(83) X(83) X(83) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 24(31) 34(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 1 19(20) 18(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 3
2025-06-17 10:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 392 WTPZ25 KNHC 170845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 93.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2025-06-17 07:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 05:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 03:22:37 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics