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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2025-06-17 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 494 FOPZ15 KNHC 171445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 22(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 36(44) 26(70) X(70) X(70) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) P MALDONADO 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 47(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 12(57) X(57) X(57) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) P ANGEL 34 2 18(20) 49(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) P ANGEL 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 32(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 95W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 4 31(35) 11(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 95W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 4
2025-06-17 16:44:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 937 WTPZ25 KNHC 171443 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-17 13:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 11:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 09:22:36 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics