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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2025-06-18 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 215 FOPZ15 KNHC 180833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 18(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 X 13(13) 78(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P ANGEL 34 1 63(64) 5(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) P ANGEL 50 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P ANGEL 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 95W 34 4 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-18 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 3:00 AM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 13.3, -95.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 7
2025-06-18 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 938 WTPZ35 KNHC 180832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 95.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and the system may reach major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics