je.st
news
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-08-26 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTNT41 KNHC 260233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 Fernand has lost organization over the past several hours. The center is completely exposed, and convection is confined to a small area south of the center due to northerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 45 kt, which lies near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. This intensity value is in good agreement with a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed 35 to 40 kt winds on the eastern side of the system. Continued weakening is expected due to sharply cooler waters, dry air, and moderate to strong shear. Fernand will likely become post-tropical in about 24 hours, if not sooner, and is expected to open into a trough in a couple of days. The storm is moving northeastward at 11 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion in the flow between a subtropical high to its east and a large trough to the west is expected until Fernand dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the Google Deep Mind and HCCA models, which have been performing well for this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 36.1N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics