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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-08-26 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 749 WTNT41 KNHC 260832 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 Fernand continues to be a sheared cyclone this morning. Satellite images show the low-level center exposed to the north of an area of dissipating convection with warming cloud tops. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 30 to 44 kt. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward or 040/12 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected later today within the flow between a subtropical high to its east and an approaching trough to the west. The NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, and lies between the Google Deep Mind and HCCA corrected consensus. Fernand is expected to continue weakening, as satellite water vapor imagery depicts the system is moving into a drier environment and SHIPS mid-level RH values remain below 50 percent. The storm is also moving over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into higher wind shear along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, which shows gradual weakening as the system spins down, and Fernand will likely become post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Wednesday. The cyclone is expected to open into a trough by 48 h and dissipate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 37.0N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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