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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 12
2025-08-26 16:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTNT41 KNHC 261438 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 Fernand has not produced deep convection near its center since about 2 AM. Based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Fernand is moving over a cool eddy of about 25 degrees Celsius in the Gulf Stream, which could explain its loss of convection. However, the storm is expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening, and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by tomorrow morning. While confidence in this scenario is not particularly high, the NHC forecast has been modified to show the potential of slight restrengthening over the next 24 hours, with post-tropical transition not occurring until 36 hours. Most of the global models show the circulation opening up into a trough by 48 hours, and that is when dissipation is shown in the official forecast. The initial motion is northeastward, or 040/11 kt. A continued northeastward motion is expected until Fernand dissipates, and no significant changes were made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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