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Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2025-07-03 10:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie continues to rapidly weaken, with a recent ASCAT pass indicating instrument derived winds of only 40 to 45 kt north of the center. The cyclones structure has further degraded, with deep convection absent and the low-level circulation now fully exposed. Both subjective and objective satellite current intensity estimates reflect this weakening trend, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of these data. The initial motion is 300/8 kt. Flossie continues to move along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge situated over northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. The updated forecast track is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. Continued weakening is anticipated as the system moves over cooler waters and remains embedded in a dry and stable environment. With no deep convection, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin [ more ]
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