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Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-10 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast and increased convective banding near the center. In addition, reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However, these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed, as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near 55 kt this advisory. After meandering last night, Francine is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward. In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at 12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Francine (AT1/AL062024)
2024-09-10 16:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.9, -95.6 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-09-10 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 390 WTNT21 KNHC 101448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics