je.st
news
Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-08-26 04:41:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 293 WTPZ43 KNHC 260241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hector remains a sheared tropical storm this evening. Recent microwave imagery from AMSR2 and GMI showed the low-level circulation on the northern edge of the deep convection, with a rain band extending to the south. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45-kt and T2.5/35-kt, respectively. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. The storm is moving along the southern side of mid-level ridge at an estimated 275/10 kt. The ridge should be the dominant steering feature for the majority of the forecast period, and Hector should generally move westward to west-northwestward through the end of the week. There is a bit of along-track spread in the model guidance, with the European model suggesting a faster forward motion compare to the American global and regional models. The latest track forecast is slightly slower than the previous prediction and close to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Environmental conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next couple of days. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be light-to-moderate with sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. By mid-week, most global models show drier mid-level air wrapping around the circulation and increasing vertical wind shear. These conditions, and possibly the cold wake of Hurricane Gilma, should lead to steady weakening and most guidance shows Hector losing its deep convection by the end of forecast period. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to earlier advisory, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 5. The forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance envelope, closest to the regional model HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.2N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics