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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-08-27 04:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270246 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hector appears to be holding steady. Deep convection has rotated to the northeast of the surface circulation and there is outflow present in the eastern half of the storm. An SSMIS microwave pass from 0024 UTC suggests that while the storm may be less tilted, the area of deep convection has decreased. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The wind radii have also been adjusted outward based on the scatterometer data. The cyclone is moving westward at 10 kt along the southern side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This general westward to west-northwestward motion, with a slight increase in forward speed, should continue through the entire forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction. Model guidance is showing that the window for potential intensification should be ending in a day or so. Weak-to-moderate shear and sufficiently warm ocean waters could allow Hector to strengthen a little more within a day, but by Thursday, all guidance suggests that deteriorating environmental conditions should induce gradual weakening. This weakening could also be hastened by Hector's passage over Hurricane Gilma's cold wake. The official forecast is still on the high end of the guidance envelope and very similar to the earlier intensity forecast, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.8N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
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