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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 7

2024-09-25 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Wednesday night over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 7

2024-09-25 04:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250254 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 85.5W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 85.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT4/AL092024)

2024-09-25 01:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.8, -85.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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