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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-09-25 10:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 250853 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 34(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 34(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) KEY WEST FL 34 2 13(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 34 X 10(10) 29(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) VENICE FL 34 X 9( 9) 52(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 5( 5) 54(59) 10(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 52(52) 29(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 29(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 73(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 72(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 46(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 61(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 64(68) 26(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 28(28) 50(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 44(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 30(30) 45(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 69(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 9(50) X(50) X(50) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MACON GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 12(60) X(60) X(60) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MERIDA MX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 16 9(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 11 10(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-25 07:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
238 ABNT20 KNHC 250553 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Helene, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-wind data indicated the system was producing winds up to storm-force, and environmental conditions could support some subtropical or tropical development over the next several days as the system moves generally eastward, remaining over the open waters of central Subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-25 07:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF HELENE APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 the center of Helene was located near 20.4, -85.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics