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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2024-09-30 04:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:41:47 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 17
2024-09-30 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Isaac's expected transition to an extratropical cyclone continues. The tropical storm's cloud pattern has become asymmetrical, with cold clouds limited mostly to the north of the surface center, and it is beginning to take the form of an extratropical rain shield. Partial ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 45-50 kt, supporting an intensity of 55 kt after accounting for undersampling. This also agrees with the most recent tropical Dvorak analysis from TAFB. The tropical storm should become fully extratropical later today. Models unanimously indicated that Isaac will continue to gradually spin down as a post-tropical low during the next several days. By 96 h, the center of Isaac is expected to become poorly-defined as it interacts with another large non-tropical low pressure system over the north Atlantic. Models are in reasonably good agreement for Isaac's track forecast. It should stay on a generally northeastward track for the next day or so. Beyond that time, there is some disagreement on exactly how soon Isaac's post-tropical remnants will turn north-northeastward, however all of the guidance shows the same generally idea that Isaac will turn toward a broad trough over the north Atlantic. No significant changes were made to the NHC forecast, which is based on the IVCN consensus for intensity and the TVCN consensus for the track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 44.4N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 45.1N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0000Z 46.7N 26.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 48.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 50.7N 23.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1200Z 52.4N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z 54.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-30 04:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The depression is gradually becoming better organized while continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no notable changes. Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and wave field as it gains latitude later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics