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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 13
2025-08-09 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 722 WTPZ44 KNHC 092038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear is displacing most of Ivo's convection south of the center, and the convective mass itself has begun to shrink. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a T3.0 classification from TAFB, and this is also supported by a recent ASCAT pass which showed a maximum of 38 kt (but is likely limited by the instrument's resolution). Continued moderate shear, gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, and a stable air mass ahead of Ivo are forecast to continue the weakening trend. GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery show all deep convection dissipating by 36 hours, which is when Ivo is shown degenerating into a remnant low in the official forecast. Dissipation is now expected by day 3, which is when the remnant low loses its integrity in the global model fields. Ivo has been moving westward, or 280/6 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to keep Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward track through dissipation. There is low spread among the track models, and only minor adjustments were made to the new NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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