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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 17
2025-08-10 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 613 WTPZ44 KNHC 102032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Even over waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius, Ivo is managing to maintain a persistent area of deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt. Accounting for the instrument's sampling limitations, and combined with satellite estimates still running around 35 kt, it is estimated that Ivo is hanging on to tropical storm status. Sea surface temperatures drop by another 2-3 degrees along Ivo's forecast track, so weakening is expected to resume tonight, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF show that deep convection could finally be gone by Monday morning. Degeneration into a remnant low is forecast by 24 hours, followed by dissipation into a trough in 60 hours. Ivo is moving west-northwestward (285 deg) at 10 kt. This motion should continue for the next 12 hours, followed by a slight bend to the west in 24 hours as Ivo stays situated to the south of the low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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