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Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-23 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 14:48:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 15:28:47 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-23 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231447 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images show that John has been strengthening quickly. A large area of cold cloud tops between -70C and -85C is present over the tropical cyclone, with tight curved bands wrapping around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are T-3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T-3.0/45 kt from SAB. Recent objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging between 57 and 76 kt. A 23/0836 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass shows that the inner core has become much better defined, showing a small eye-like feature on microwave imagery, although there are no signs of an eye showing up yet in infrared or visible images. A 23/1011 UTC SSMIS pass showed a similar structure to the AMSR-2 pass. Based on the above data and imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. John will continue to be located within an environment of extremely warm ocean temperatures, light wind shear and a moist low- to mid-level troposphere as it approaches the coast of Mexico. While the hurricane regional and dynamical models show a more limited amount of additional strengthening, the statistical models like SHIPS and LGEM are at the high end of the guidance suite. Given that the system has already intensified by 30 kt in the past 18 h, and given that the SHIPS rapid intensity index is showing greater than an 85 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 h, the NHC intensity forecast will now explicitly show rapid strengthening over the next 24 h. This intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance suite. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 24 h forecast point and when it is forecast to move inland around 36 hours. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor future forecast updates on John. Based on center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, John's motion is estimated to be northward, or 0 degrees at 3 kt. John is embedded in very weak steering currents, and the primary steering mechanism is likely the southwesterly monsoonal flow that the cyclone is embedded in. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the west of the previous official forecast and now lies very near the latest model consensus. It should be noted that the track forecast and timing of when the center reaches the coast is more uncertain than normal. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to become a hurricane later today and additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.8N 98.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-23 16:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 98.5W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday, and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a hurricane by this afternoon, with additional strengthening expected before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics