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Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-09-25 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 33 15(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) L CARDENAS 50 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 56 15(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ZIHUATANEJO 50 11 17(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 23 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 44 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P MALDONADO 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-25 22:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.8, -101.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 12
2024-09-25 22:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, this is case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics