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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-28 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282041 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly due to the lower initial intensity. The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic. More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-28 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 20.3, -46.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-28 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 46.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to gradually weaken, and could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics