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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2025-08-26 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Juliette continues to strengthen. A microwave pass from a few hours ago suggested that the storm was developing an inner core, and recent infrared satellite images indicate that banding features are increasing south of the center. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS have all increased to 3.5/55 kt, and therefore, the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Juliette is expected to remain in favorable conditions to strengthen for about another day, and it seems likely that it will become a hurricane on Tuesday. However, the strengthening trend should end by Tuesday night when the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and then move into an environment of drier air and stronger shear. Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days when it is forecast to be over cool 22 C waters, and dissipate entirely this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the HCCA and IVCN models. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest with a notable reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days as Juliette moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with EMXI and the Google DeepMind models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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