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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-08-26 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 The center of Juliette appears to be near the northern edge of the central convective area, as there could still be some moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. Overall, the structure appears similar to, but slightly degraded compared to, the system's appearance on satellite imagery 6 h ago. The latest objective intensity estimates have been running in the 45-50 kt range, and the latest Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are both 3.5 (55 kt). The initial intensity is set at 55 kt for this advisory. Although vertical wind shear over Juliette is forecast to be very low for the next 24-30 h, the cyclone is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature (SST) isotherm by hour 12, and water temperatures will continue to decrease with time along its path. Juliette will also be moving into a progressively drier and more stable airmass. Little change in strength is expected over the next 12-24 h, but steady weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over colder water and through drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through 24 h, but lies in the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Beyond 36 h, southwesterly wind shear will increase as Juliette moves closer to an upper-level trough located well to its northwest. The increasing shear, along with the cold SSTs and dry air, should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 2 days. Global models show the remnant low gradually spinning down and dissipating in 3 to 4 days. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 325/9 kt. This general motion should continue over the next couple of days as Juliette moves in between two strong mid-level ridges, one located over northwestern Mexico and the other located well to the west-northwest of the cyclone. Juliette should slow down some on Wednesday as the steering currents weaken on the west side of the mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. There has been a large northeastward shift to the guidance this cycle. The latest official forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but not nearly as far to the right as some of the other consensus models like the TCVE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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