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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 7
2025-09-01 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012040 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 Kiko continues to gradually become better organized on conventional satellite imagery with increasingly impressive curved banding noted in 1-minute GOES-18 imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates range from 55-65 kt while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to be in the 45-50 kt range. Based on a blend of the data and improving appearance on satellite imagery over the last few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. Kiko has been moving toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower speed, with an estimated motion of 255/6 kt. A strengthening subtropical ridge to Kiko's north should cause this general motion to continue for the next day or so. After that time, Kiko should turn back toward the west due to its position due south of the strongest part of the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, a west-northwestward motion is likely as Kiko starts to reach the southwestern portion of the ridge's influence. There is very large along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is high uncertainty in Kiko's forward speed. The latest guidance has trended slower. The NHC forecast is slower and a bit to the north of the previous forecast, but not as slow as most of the latest consensus models. This latest track forecast is fairly close to the 12Z ECMWF model. Relatively warm ocean temperatures and light wind shear should allow Kiko to steadily strengthen over the next couple of days. If Kiko were to move south of the NHC forecast track, it could encounter stronger shear in 1-2 days, as the models show stronger upper level winds south of about 13N latitude. The other factor that complicates the intensity forecast is the possibility that some dry air tries to entrain into the circulation. The peak forecast intensity has been increased a bit to show a peak of 95 kt in 60-72 hours. This is closer to the latest HCCA and high resolution hurricane models, some of which bring Kiko to major hurricane intensity. Late in the forecast period, some slight weakening is possible due to slightly cooler ocean temperatures and the potential for slightly drier and more stable air. The intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.6N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.6N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 13.6N 131.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 13.8N 133.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 14.3N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 15.2N 141.6W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
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