je.st
news
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 40
2024-10-12 10:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120839 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday. Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough before then due to the fast forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2024-10-12 10:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 120837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-12 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 31.3, -45.9 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics