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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 10
2024-10-04 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 33.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 33.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 22
2024-10-04 22:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042044 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 280SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-10-04 22:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042044 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics