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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-10-04 04:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-10-04 04:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 31.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 32.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-10-04 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics