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Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 4
2024-10-06 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-10-06 10:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060845 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-06 07:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
208 ABNT20 KNHC 060534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics