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Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-10-06 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 061456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 3(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 3(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 2(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 1(52) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 41(61) 3(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 3(55) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 10(38) X(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 6(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 18(66) 1(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) 1(56) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 24(80) 1(81) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 24(50) X(50) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 32(75) 1(76) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) X(47) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 30(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 3(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 19(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-10-06 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 013 WTNT42 KNHC 061456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Most of Kirk's convection is now located in its northeastern semicircle as a result of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB at T-4.5/77 kt. Some of the objective CIMSS intensity estimates are still a bit higher, and the initial intensity is set to 85 kt, in agreement with the objective estimates. Kirk is expected to continue to weaken during the next several days due to strong southwesterly wind shear, which is expected to increase even more after 24 h. Also, the hurricane will reach cooler sea-surface temperature below 26C in about 12 hours. Global models indicate that Kirk should undergo extratropical transition soon, and the transition should be complete in about 36 h. Kirk's wind field is expected to remain quite large, which will continue to generate a very large area of dangerous seas over the Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle of the guidance. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast, or 020/22 kt within the flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer trough to the west of Kirk. The track guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement that Kirk will accelerate while turning northeastward and east-northeastward over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is close to the previous prediction, and shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, then moving over portions of western Europe Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. The initial wind radii have been increased based on data from a recent ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 38.1N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 41.1N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 43.8N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z 44.5N 15.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.7N 6.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 52.5N 9.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-06 16:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -94.4 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics