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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-19 16:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City. The center is currently moving across the country's barrier islands of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur within the next hour. The sprawling tropical storm continues to slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds to 45 kt. Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center soon. A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm makes landfall. The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or so. This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday. Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday. The remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 4
2024-10-19 16:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to make landfall near Belize City later this morning, and then move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico this afternoon through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the storm moves inland, and it will likely dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-10-19 16:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191457 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics