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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2024-10-19 10:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:44:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:44:12 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-10-19 10:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as Cancun. The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-10-19 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 87.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics