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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 5
2024-10-19 22:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 122 WTNT35 KNHC 192033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 89.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.4 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds for a few more hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-10-19 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192040 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 71.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-19 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192034 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine made landfall very near Belize City around 11 am CDT (1600 UTC) with peak winds of about 50 kt. Since that time, the storm has been moving across the northern portion of Belize and losing strength. The initial intensity is nudged down to 40 kt, with the strongest winds likely occurring over water and along the coast. Continued weakening is forecast as Nadine moves farther inland, and it will likely dissipate on Sunday. The storm has been accelerating westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/11 kt. A slightly faster westward or west-southwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates over southern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 17.2N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics