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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2025-09-22 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 300 PM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 Narda continues to gradually gain strength. Visible satellite images indicate that banding features are becoming better organized, and there is some indication of an inner core forming. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt, based on the latest satellite intensity estimates that range from about 40 to 55 kt. Some of the outer rain bands are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and these bands could continue to graze the coast through tonight. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A general westward motion, away from Mexico, is expected through the week as the storm is primarily steered by a strong subtropical high pressure system to its north. By the weekend, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted when the system nears a weakness in the ridge. The models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is considerable spread at days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and leans on the left side of the guidance in the long range toward the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind models, which have been performing well this year in the east Pacific basin. Narda is expected to continue to steadily strengthen during the next few days as it remains in generally conducive atmospheric conditions of low to moderate wind shear and a moist air mass while moving over warm SSTs. The system is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and could be near major hurricane strength in a couple of days. The storm is forecast to move into a more stable environment and over cool waters late in the week, and that should induce a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA and Decay-SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.2N 103.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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