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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 35
2025-10-08 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025 Visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level center is exposed on the northeast side of a convective mass, which has been decreasing in coverage and intensity over the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-45 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak vectors of 38 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to 40 kt. The ASCAT data also indicated that the circulation is still closed/well-defined. However, the northwesterly winds associated with Priscilla's circulation are only located about 100 n mi to the northeast of Octave. It is possible that the Octave could dissipate at any time over the next 24 hours, even though dissipation isn't explicitly forecast until beyond 24 h. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast at 10 kt. A gradual bend toward the northeast with some acceleration is expected as Octave moves around the southern side of Priscilla. There are no significant changes to the track forecast, which lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). Strong easterly shear over 30 kt is expected to continue for the remainder of Octave's lifetime. While bursts of convection may still form, any convection should quickly be sheared off to the west. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show Octave losing its convection by hour 24, but as noted above, Octave could lose its closed circulation and dissipate at any time. The closer Octave gets to Priscilla, the sooner Octave is likely to dissipate. The intensity forecast shows slow weakening until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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