je.st
news
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-10-21 22:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212042 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Although the circulation of Oscar is rather broad, visible satellite images show that the center is nearing the northern coast of eastern Cuba. Deep convection associated with the system has diminished during the day, at least partially due to a diurnal fluctuation. The intensity is kept, perhaps generously, at 35 kt for this advisory. Surface synoptic observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate that the strongest winds are over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and no tropical-storm-force wind radii are shown to the northwest or southwest of the center for this advisory. Oscar been turning fairly sharply to the right while the system executes a hairpin turn over eastern Cuba. The current motion estimate is around 330/6 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a mid-level trough. Since the system has moved a little farther west than previously estimated, the overall official track forecast has been shifted slightly west of the previous one. This is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However, Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles. Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast is above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. In 2 to 3 days, the global models show the system being absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system to the west of Bermuda. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-10-21 22:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 212040 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 34 2 30(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-21 22:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 21.0, -76.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics