je.st
news
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-10-21 04:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210245 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Oscar made landfall around 2150 UTC as a 70-kt hurricane near the city of Baracoa in the Guantanamo province of eastern Cuba. Radar data from Guantanamo Bay shows Oscar has continued to move slowly over eastern Cuba tonight, with heavy rainfall spreading across the region. Oscar's slow motion will enhance the potential for heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides across eastern Cuba, particularly near higher terrain. There has been notable degradation of Oscar's inner core structure in recent radar and satellite images, which suggests weakening is occurring due to ongoing land interaction. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. Oscar wobbled slightly southward on its final approach to Cuba, but recent radar data suggest the system has resumed a slow west-southwestward to westward motion. Oscar should remain over eastern Cuba or very near the coast during the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the flow ahead of a digging shortwave trough over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to capture Oscar, which should result in a northeastward acceleration through midweek. The track guidance trended faster this cycle, particularly the ECMWF (which has handled Oscar well) and even the GFS with a shallower vortex depiction. The NHC track forecast once again shows a faster forward speed between 36-72 h, generally between the HCCA/TVCN consensus aids and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX). Weakening is expected to continue as the inner core structure of Oscar is disrupted by the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. The extent of the weakening that occurs, and whether Oscar remains a tropical cyclone (TC) once it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, is still somewhat uncertain. The ECMWF has been the best-performing guidance for Oscar and shows it remaining a TC, while other models including the GFS suggest more significant weakening and possible degeneration to a surface trough. Even if Oscar survives, the environmental conditions over the southwestern Atlantic are expected to become more hostile, with stronger vertical wind shear and a drier surrounding airmass likely to inhibit much redevelopment. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but shows post-tropical status at 72 h given the shear. If Oscar survives that long, it should become absorbed by a larger, non-tropical low pressure system over the western Atlantic by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue overnight across portions of eastern Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-10-21 04:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 210245 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 8
2024-10-21 04:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 773 WTNT31 KNHC 210244 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AS SLOW-MOVING OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 74.6W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late Monday and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics