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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-10-21 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210837 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island. A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner core organization over the past several hours, the initial wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for this advisory. Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that the center is located just north of that location. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72 hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-21 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.2, -75.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 9
2024-10-21 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics