je.st
news
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-10-21 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 167 FONT11 KNHC 211444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-21 16:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.3, -75.4 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 10
2024-10-21 16:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 753 WTNT31 KNHC 211444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
Category: Transportation and Logistics