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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 26
2024-11-09 21:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092057 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant, but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 26
2024-11-09 21:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092057 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2024-11-09 21:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 092057 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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