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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 27
2024-11-10 03:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and northwest of buoy 42001. The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and lies near the consensus models. Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 03:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.7, -91.7 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 27
2024-11-10 03:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 91.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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