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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-11-10 15:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafaels remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.3, -91.9 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 29
2024-11-10 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the remainder of this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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