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Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
2024-11-10 09:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 28
2024-11-10 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2024-11-10 09:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 860 FONT13 KNHC 100830 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 12 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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