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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 23
2024-11-09 03:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 792 WTNT33 KNHC 090234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 89.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42001 located north of the center reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2024-11-09 03:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 772 FONT13 KNHC 090234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 00:29:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082329 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near Greater Antilles: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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