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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 6
2024-11-05 03:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050259 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...RECON FINDS RAFAEL STEADY STATE AS IT NEARS JAMAICA... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND ISLE OF YOUTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 77.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded all the provinces previously under a Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Cuba has also upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through Tuesday morning for Jamaica, and within 36 h for portions of Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward turn with a little more acceleration is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 h, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight into Tuesday morning and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States by mid to late week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 6
2024-11-05 03:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 789 WTNT23 KNHC 050254 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 77.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-05 00:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 042351 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible towards the latter part of this week as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics