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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-11-05 21:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 052041 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 3 22(25) 17(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 3 31(34) 29(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 5(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 9(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 1(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 3(27) 1(28) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) 10(39) 2(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 5(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 7(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 1 75(76) 13(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HAVANA 50 X 34(34) 19(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HAVANA 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 5 60(65) 3(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 50 1 41(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 49 37(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CIENFUEGOS 50 2 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 1(20) GRAND CAYMAN 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-11-05 21:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 79.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 70SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 79.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-05 18:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051744 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located just west of Jamaica. Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Portions of this system are forecast to move westward during the next day or so and could form a low pressure near the northern Leeward by Thursday. Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics