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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-11-17 15:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory. The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-11-17 15:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 171445 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 15:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 17.1, -88.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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